On 15th February Nicola Sturgeon announced her resignation as First Minister of Scotland. Her speech cited both political and personal reasons for her decision.

Sturgeon noted that the UK Supreme Court’s blocking of an independence referendum and her decision to seek a “de facto referendum” at the next general election – which would see an SNP majority in votes count as a vote for independence – played a role. Despite it being believed that many in the SNP see this course of action as a vote-loser, Sturgeon said she was confident there was majority support in Scotland for independence and that she could have led the party to victory at the next election.

Nevertheless, she felt views about her had become entrenched and that the baton should be passed to a figure without controversy to maximise the SNP’s chances of electoral and independence success. She claimed that by standing down, she could “free” the SNP to choose its direction at a conference next month.

What next?

The new leader will need to bridge Sturgeon’s supporters – who are a majority within the SNP – and her vocal critics. Historically, the SNP was divided over fundamentalists – who wanted to declare independence as soon as possible – and gradualists, who saw devolution and government in Scotland as a route to independence. The gradualists won that battle under Alex Salmond but since the 2014 referendum, impatience for independence has grown within the party and internal divisions have brought about a return to the pre-2014 dividing lines. Sturgeon was a gradualist, intent on building majority support for independence. Her call for a “de facto referendum” last year therefore seemed out of character: an admission of weakness in the face of both constitutional realities and internal critics.

A new SNP leader will be in an unquestionably precarious position. They will need to find a way to independence that satisfies both those who want to play within the UK government’s rules, and hard-liners who are increasingly attracted to more controversial options, including a unilateral declaration of independence. Under Alex Salmond, the SNP was famed for its discipline; though divisions over Brexit and controversial policies like the Named Person Scheme – though minor relative to divisions in the Tories and Labour – signalled an end to the era of uniformity.

Though the failure of Alex Salmond’s Alba Party has helped to ensure the SNP is unlikely to fracture, ill discipline risks its election-winning record as does a resurgent Labour Party. SNP members will be acutely aware that, if the party falters, so does the hope of independence. The new leader will therefore also have to be a determined and convincing campaigner for independence.

Potential successors

A remarkable factor of this decision is that, in Sturgeon’s long period in office, no obvious candidate has emerged. Though this list includes MPs, Sturgeon made clear the party is looking for a new leader and a new first minister, meaning that anyone not currently in Holyrood is a highly unlikely candidate.

1. Kate Forbes, Cabinet Secretary for Finance
   Forbes has impressed colleagues, the often SNP-sceptic Scottish business sector, and even UK civil servants; though she appears to lack Sturgeon’s aggressive zeal, which may make her be less attractive to her party.
   Sceptical commentators tend to focus on her socially conservative views; though her classically liberal approach to economics is likely the greater obstacle for a party with many self-identified socialists in its membership.
   
   

2. Humza Yousaf, Health Secretary
   Sturgeon has long valued him as a competent, involved minister and as a bullish campaigner. He is, however, not universally popular among colleagues and some in the party may fear minor scandals and messaging clangers could blow into something bigger.
   
   

3. Angus Robertson, Former Westminster leader and Constitution Secretary
   Robertson represents continuity Sturgeonism. He has long embodied the europhile, socially liberal approach the SNP has hoped will win liberal No voters to independence. He combines this, however, with an occasional abrasiveness both in public and in dealings with colleagues. This may undermine his chances.
   
   

4. Keith Brown, Deputy leader of the party
   Brown has served as a “safe pair of hands” in various government roles. His low profile may make him look like an outsider but a long-running Holyrood rumour has favoured him as the one candidate who can unite pro-Sturgeon supporters and critics.
   
   

5. John Swinney, Deputy First Minister and former leader
   Swinney has proven himself as a loyal, competent minister. His disastrous term as leader may have spoiled his chances, however, and those close to him suspect he is likely to retire soon.
   
   

6. Shirley-Anne Somerville, Education Secretary
   Somerville could be a dark horse in the race given her relative consistency in office, combined with her anonymity, which would enable her a blank slate to shape the Party’s direction.
   
   
7. Stephen Flynn, Westminster leader
   Flynn is not an ally of Sturgeon and very much an outside candidate; though he may put himself forward.
   
   
8. Mhairi Black, Westminster deputy leader
   Black will no doubt feature in many lists of runners and riders. Though popular with many activists, her lack of government experience and her detachment from the party hierarchy will not count in her favour.
   
   

The PPA is looking into each of the candidates’ track records on media, and will keep our members updated as to any developments.